It’s been talked about everywhere by now, but the fact remains that Vin Scully’s contract is up at the end of the year, and he’s leaving it up to his wife, Sandy, to decide whether or not he returns for his 60th season with the Dodgers. I and millions of other selfish Dodger fans, no doubt, are sending telepathic messages to Mrs. Scully imploring her to send her husband back to the booth for the 2009 season. Even though we’ve had the experience these last few years, it’s really hard to imagine turning on a Dodgers game without hearing the familiar voice of Vin Scully greeting us.

Let me start with this: I can’t say I blame Vin or his wife one bit if they decide he should hang it up after this season. He’s been with the Dodgers since 1950, and while it’s obvious he enjoys the job — he keeps coming back, after all — one has to assume it’s also been incredibly difficult. In that timespan, he’s lost his oldest son and his first wife, never mind all the traveling and the time away from home and the other stresses the job entails for everyone in it. He’s also 80 years old and it’s probably a safe assumption that he isn’t quite as healthy as he used to be, though we know his voice and his brain are in fine working order. So, again, if he were to leave us — and by “leave,” I mean the broadcast booth, since I don’t doubt for a second that the McCourts would continue to employ him in some capacity for as long as he likes — it’s hard to make a case that it isn’t the right decision.

As a Dodgers fan, though, I have to hope he does come back. Maybe he could work an even more limited schedule, like only doing home games (he currently does the games in every NL West city). I really just can’t imagine turning on a Dodgers game and not hearing him say, “Hi, everyone, and a very pleasant good evening to you, wherever you may be.” Thousands of miles away in Rhode Island, that simple statement from him every evening makes me feel all warm and fuzzy, and like part of the broadcast — it’s that statement that opens up what feels to the listeners like he’s talking specifically to you. And although there is an evil part of me that likes to make fun of his various quirks, like the annual re-telling of the Jack Wilson Story or the inexplicable humor he finds in announcing that “Hu’s on first,” I would be very upset if I had to go without it. I really would. That’s Dodger baseball. That’s Vin Scully.

And between the stories and the bad jokes, Vin is still calling baseball. He has the most impeccable timing — he’ll just be telling some story, “blah blah blah Jack Wilson blah blah blah Cincinnati, the pitch is a strike, two and one to Russell Martin, blah blah blah…” He’s also the master of continuity. I can’t count the number of times he’ll be telling a story and the player he’s talking about will do something. The play happens and Vin weaves it right into his play-by-play. I have no idea how he does that. The best part is that I never see it coming, so it usually surprises me so much that I start laughing. Every time. It’s just a sign of enjoying the broadcast, I think.

It’s a love of Vin Scully and a fear of change. The Dodgers’ other English-language broadcasters are obviously not in Vin’s league, but aside from guys like Harry Kalas and Bob Uecker, nobody is. The problem with the other guys is that they’re terrible. Remove Vin from the equation — from the times I’ve listened to them, they’re barely adequate on their own merits. I usually opt to listen to the Dodgers’ Spanish-language broadcasters instead. As a Spanish major, this is tantamount to homework, but I’d rather exercise my brain twofold with a Spanish broadcast than trying to decipher what the hell Rick Monday is talking about at any given moment. Jaime, Pepe, and Fernando at least make sense in Spanish; Monday makes no sense in English.

All that aside, this is about Vinny, not about the dreck that replaces Vinny. And I say he should do what he and Sandy feel he should do, because it’s less about me than it is about him, and I’d rather have a healthy and happy Vin Scully working off the air than no Vin Scully at all. But for this East Coast Dodgers fan, who can only experience the team one way, it’s all about Vin. He’ll do what he needs to do. But that doesn’t mean I won’t miss him. He is, ultimately, what made me a Dodgers fan, and I’ll be here when he’s gone, but part of me just doesn’t want to go through it by myself. And that’s what I’ll feel like if I don’t have Vinny talking baseball with me every night.

Vin Scully Awaits Wife’s Cue on Continuing Long Run [New York Times]

In Jake Peavy’s young career, he has absolutely dominated the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 20 career starts, he is 11-1 against LA with a 2.31 ERA — 5-1 at Dodger Stadium, 6-0 at PETCO Park. And even when he doesn’t have his best stuff against LA, he might as well be goddamn Juan Marichal.

Case in point: last night. The Dodgers strike first, scoring one run each in the first and third innings while Penny kept the Padres quiet. And then the first Dodgers/Padres game of the season seemed to repeat itself when Penny gave up four runs in the top of the fourth inning. The Dodgers never got the lead back as Peavy won his third game of the season and Brad Penny fell to 1-2.

It isn’t just that Peavy is a great young pitcher, because he definitely is and it’s difficult to argue with that contention. It’s that when he’s just “okay” on a given night, the Dodgers still can’t beat him. They haven’t beaten him since 2003. And the only thing he’s done in the interim is get better. It’s hard to fault the Dodgers fan for wondering if the Dodgers will ever beat Jake Peavy.

I made the Marichal reference up top primarily because Marichal pitched most of his career for the Giants, and then I looked at the numbers, and it so happens that Marichal did regularly defeat LA, and often embarrasingly so (for LA, not Marichal). Marichal was 37-18 against the Dodgers in his career, boasting a 2.36 ERA. The only franchise he used to kill with such frequency was the Mets, against whom he was 26-8 with a 2.13 ERA. He didn’t lose a game to the Mets until 1967, when he was in the middle of a pretty mediocre  (for him) season. And the Mets didn’t even beat him with eventual Rookie of the Year Tom Seaver — Jack Fisher got the win. Maybe the Dodgers need to send Derek Lowe out there and see what happens.

And of course, the other cause for concern for LA is Brad Penny, who had a fine first start of the season and has looked pretty bad since then. Indeed, he has had the bad luck of facing Jake Peavy the last two games out. Conversely, he faced Barry Zito and the punchless Giants in his first game, so maybe that’s not a good measurement of success, either, especially when you consider that the Padres are not exactly the 1927 Yankees out there when it comes to hitting.

Doesn’t seem like LA is at this point, either, anyway. Rafael Furcal is hitting .432 with six doubles and two triples; James Loney has two home runs and a .351 average. After that? Nothing. Russell is not hitting at all; Andruw Jones is worse. Grouchy McMoustache has two home runs and not much else. The team is tenth in batting average and twelfth in slugging percentage. This sounds a lot like the end of last season. Fortunately, it is only April — but this is not the way one wants one’s team to start out.

They’re not poised for much of a rebound tonight, either, as Derek Lowe faces Chris Young. Yes, the Dodgers won the last time these two squared off, but it wasn’t Lowe or Young getting any decisions — instead, the Dodgers had to get past some guy pretending to be Trevor Hoffman. Let’s see if they have it in them to go for it again tonight.

Well, my spring break is over. I read a book, I got to hear Andy Brickley swear on live TV, and I’m still a traitor to my family name because I hate the Montreal Canadiens. But enough about me and hockey. How about them Dodgers?

Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers’ season will open with some of its most important players down for the count. Andy LaRoche is out for maybe ten weeks with torn ligaments in his hand, Nomar broke his hand (who had March 14 in the pool?), and Old Man Kent is out with a sore hamstring.

What a shocker.

So that leaves us where, exactly? Well, at least at this second, the lineup is Martin at catcher, Loney-?-Furcal-? in the infield, and some combination of Pierre, Jones, Kemp, and Ethier in the outfield. Wow, that’s totally rock solid! Torre apparently hasn’t decided whether or not to bench the Nine Million Dollar Man even though he’s hitting -.042 and Ethier is on an absolute tear. Yes, I know spring statistics don’t mean anything, but come on. Anyway, the infield’s the bigger problem. Our remaining choices basically amount to this:

* Blake DeWitt, who hasn’t played a game above AA.
* Tony Abreu, the backup 2B who could be playing 3B.
* Chin-Lung Hu, whose name puts Vin Scully into Unstoppable Abbott & Costello Mode.
* Ramon Martinez. Need I say more?

The late, great Ned Martin had a catchphrase that I think is appropriate right now: Oh, mercy.

Of course, this isn’t permanent. Still, people will say that “it’s only April,” but really, the games count as much now as they do in September. LA’s first four series are against division rivals, and three of those are against San Diego (two) and Arizona. The slack must be picked up in order to have any wiggle room at all down the stretch. And if the Dodgers have needed anything the last few years, it’s wiggle room. So let us wallow in our own paranoia and the fear that we will be the Cubs of the twenty-first century.

This is not a fun way to enter the season.

But cheer up, Dodgers fans! We open at home next Monday against San Francisco. That’s what it’s all about, right? Baseball is almost back, baby, and you gotta love it regardless of the lineup your team is putting out there.* And don’t forget to tune into KCAL this Saturday to see the exhibition game against Boston in the LA Memorial Coliseum. Check back a couple of posts on this blog if you missed my exhilarating story about the Coliseum. Really, you don’t know what you’re missing.

* May not be applicable to Giants fans.

Or at least he has one really nasty one.

I tell you, that curve is a thing of beauty. When a 19-year-old A-ball prospect — a highly-touted one, yes, but still — can buckle the knees of a decent major league hitter with his stuff, it’s pretty special. The kid needs to make the majors one day so I can watch curveballs like that all the time.

Kershaw’s performance in Florida has brought out the Promote Him to Los Angeles crazies. I mean, yes, our fifth starter currently appears to be Esteban Loaiza. That’s a little disconcerting. But it doesn’t mean the Dodgers can’t do well, and it certainly doesn’t mean there’s any reason to rush Kershaw to the majors before he’s ready.

According to The Baseball Cube, Kershaw’s career minor league stats are like this:

10-7, 159 IP, 117 H, 217 K, 72 BB, 17 WP, 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Divide those up by levels for better analysis.

GCL Dodgers (Rookie): 2-0, 37 IP, 28 H, 54 K, 5 BB, 8 WP, 1.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Great Lakes Loons (A): 7-5, 97.1 IP, 72 H, 134 K, 50 BB, 8 WP, 2.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Jacksonville Suns (AA): 1-2, 24.2 IP, 17 H, 29 K, 17 BB, 1 WP, 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

I put wild pitches in there because I think, combined with his walk rate, it’s indicative of how he needs to develop better control — even when he’s not walking people, he’s still a little unrefined in the control department. At Great Lakes, he had a walk rate of over 4 1/2 walks per nine innings, and when he got to Jacksonville, it jumped to over six walks per nine innings. That’s a lot of walks. To his credit, his hit rates are all under 7 per nine and his strikeout rates are all over 10 per nine, but this is all minor league stuff. I’m no expert, but I don’t think that, in the majors, his walks would go down and he’d maintain the hit and K rates. Call me crazy.

If we see him in September, I’m okay with that, but I’d hate for him to be rushed to the majors just because someone had a panic attack about how our fifth starter isn’t very good. That’s why he’s a fifth starter. That’s no cause for alarm given what we have in the rest of the rotation. If we had held on to Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson and planned to use them as starters, then yeah, I’d worry, but that’s not the case. The Dodgers need to be careful with this kid and not trade him anywhere and then bring him up when he can’t possibly abuse minor league hitting any further. Rushing him could be costly. Maybe it won’t be, but is that a chance you want to take?

The kid has a serious heater and a nasty curve, and I can’t wait to see him make the big club. Now is just not the time.

Kershaw’s curve, 3-9-08 [YouTube]
Clayton Kershaw Statistics [The Baseball Cube]

Here on this second to last day of February, there was something special in the air- to certain people, that is. With workouts well underway, the first few games have started in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. With that, baseball fans can walk with a larger spring in their step, knowing we’re that much closer to the start of the 2008 season.

Despite the snow on the ground here in Chicago, the Cubs played their first “game” today. And they won.

Now, everyone knows what happens in spring training stays in spring training. But no one wants to fail, let alone during this time of the year- the time when everyone seemingly has a shot at October. So when I turned on my radio during the 7^th inning to learn that we were up 11-4, it put a huge smile on my face. Will anyone remember this come the start of the season? No. Heck, some people may not remember it a week from now. But it’s so nice to see that baseball is back in our lives.

Every spring I wonder how we get by in the off season. For roughly four months, we have no games, rare news updates, and only hot stove reports to keep us satisfied. Then comes February, and the day we look forward to each year where pitchers and catchers report. Days later the whole team is in camp. The next week is Photo Day. A few days later, games begin to take place. And after some fine-tuning, the season gets underway shortly after. It’s a season that consists of 162 games that will toy with our emotions and make us crazy. We will be overjoyed, we will cry, and inevitably a remote or two will be thrown. Perhaps even all three will occur in one day. But this emotional roller coaster is a baseball fan’s high. We long for it throughout the off season, and once it’s here we cling to it with every ounce of our being. Those 162 games will take us from the hopeful summer, to the long and rigorous summer, and- to select few- all the way to October.

So tomorrow when the Cubs take on the Giants once again, I’ll listen intently to the sounds of spring knowing full well it doesn’t matter who wins. From the crazy line scores the game will produce, to the record-setting substitutions that will arise, I’ll savor every moment. The snow outside will seem non-existent, and the weather will seem slightly warmer, if only because the season is less than a month away. And baseball is here again.

We’re a month away from an exhibition game between the Dodgers and Red Sox at LA Memorial Coliseum. In honor of this game between my two favorite teams, I present to you a history and some other nuggets of information on the Coliseum, the original home of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Multipurpose stadiums have never been and will never be a good idea. They have to be able to effectively house baseball and football, but they’re never quite the right size, and most of them are downright unattractive from the outside. Just say “Veterans Stadium” to an Eagles or Phillies fan and see what kind of reaction you get.

But what if you play in a stadium that isn’t even intended to serve as a field for your sport of choice? Not only is it the wrong size, but no amount of fences and tweaking will ever make it the right size. It’s a nightmare in which to watch that sport, not to mention play in it, and you are playing in it because your owner picked seating capacity over proper accomodations while he was waiting for your new stadium to be built.

This is the tale of Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

The Coliseum opened in 1923 and the first event it hosted was a football game between Pomona and USC. The USC Trojans still play football there. The stadium also hosted the Summer Olympics in 1932 and 1984 and professional football. And, for four years between 1958 and 1961, the Coliseum was home to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

What I said above is true — Walter O’Malley did choose the Coliseum over Wrigley Field based on seating capacity, even though Wrigley Field was built for baseball (it hosted the PCL Los Angeles Angels until O’Malley bought the park and the team from P.K. Wrigley). And the park was, in fact, poorly suited for baseball. Home plate, in an actual baseball field, is usually at the narrow end of the field. In the Coliseum, it is in the middle of one of the long ends, and there is a fence around right field to center field. The left-field foul line is only 250 feet long, and a screen is placed in front of the left-field stands to prevent every fly ball from leaving the park. This is a photograph of what it looks like.

The Dodgers did not do well their first year in this “ballpark.” Neither would you if you had to play baseball in a football field. They were dead last, or close to it, in most statistical categories. But they picked themselves up in 1959 and won the World Series, setting a couple of attendance records along the way, so maybe O’Malley wasn’t completely nuts when he picked this place to house the Dodgers until Dodger Stadium was completed. Not that this excuses the crazy dimensions of the place or anything, though it did give Wally Moon some of his best years…and the pitching staff some of their worst.

So now the Dodgers have a perfectly nice ballpark, but they’re celebrating fifty years in LA, so they’ll be honoring their roots by playing in this thing. And the best part is that it’ll be even worse this time. The place is narrower than it was in 1958, so the left-field line is 200 feet long. Solution? Make the screen taller. Oh, that’s not asking for disaster. Of course, it does guarantee an exciting game. And they’ll probably break the exhibition attendance record they set in 1959 against the Yankees.

It’s just one game this time, instead of four seasons, so we’ll just have to enjoy the absurdity of it all. I can’t be the only one who wants to see if Manny Ramirez falls into the screen, right? See Ortiz launch an opposite-field bomb over the screen? Who knows — maybe people will have to bring their radios so they have some way of knowing what’s going on. And you know Vin Scully won’t be at a loss for words. So sit back and relax. It doesn’t count and it’ll probably be pretty funny. What else can you ask for?

McCourt kicks off Coliseum project [Dodgers.com]
1958 Los Angeles Dodgers Statistics and Roster [Baseball Reference]

Old news at this point, but still very much priceless and worth repeating: the Giants’ starting pitchers will be rocking stirrup socks this season as a symbol of unity.

I’m sort of an old-school baseball fan. I think I read and write more about baseball players from a hundred years ago than I do about people who are still playing, so I guess it all makes sense. Part of the old-schoolness is a love of stirrup socks. The Dressed to the Nines online exhibit has plenty of information on socks if you want it, but suffice it to say — and you’ll have noticed this if you’ve been around long enough — that the stirrup sock has sort of disappeared from baseball. A few guys still wear them (Jamie Moyer, Juan Pierre), but they’re not nearly as common as they used to be. The solid high sock is also fairly uncommon these days (Mike Timlin). Most guys prefer the shoe-length pants today. I do not. Stirrups were good enough for Nolan Ryan and they’re good enough for you, dammit. That’s just me, though.

I love the stirrup sock look, and I love that the Giants pitchers are doing this. Now this is something that (for me) will make Giants games more fun this season — no Barry Bonds for the announcers to focus on, and now some of the guys will be rocking stirrup socks. I can’t complain about that…at least until Vin Scully spends an entire inning talking about them. Fifteen minutes on Sandy Koufax’s stirrup socks might be enough to make me wish Vinny would talk about Omar Vizquel instead.

I do wish Barry Zito’s desire to wear orange sanitaries with black stirrups would be granted, though. That would rule. Wouldn’t be the worst combination ever (Rollie Fingers).

Paul Lukas has a post about this, with pictures, over at Uni Watch.

Stirrups make a comeback with starters [SFGiants.com]
Dressed to the Nines: A History of Baseball Uniforms [National Baseball Hall of Fame]

Joe Torre is still wearing a 6 on his jersey. Chances are he’s still walking around in Florida with a finger jammed up his nose, thinking of ways to destroy Scott Proctor’s arm. This isn’t terribly different from years gone by, except he’s wearing Dodger Blue instead of pinstripes, and in Vero Beach instead of Tampa. Same Joe, new clothes, new scenery.

I gather that something else about Joe Torre will be very much the same in his new environment: his fetish for experience. He has indicated that Nomar and Juan Pierre will get their chances, which is fine, really — it’s not fair to eliminate a guy completely before the position players even report, even if that guy is a noodle-armed outfielder with no power or a creaky old injury-prone ex-shortstop — but I suspect that something drastic would need to take place before Torre started the kids on Opening Day over these two.

That, as we know, is probably a bad thing.

It’s difficult to begrudge Pierre his contract. Ned did not have to give him that contract. And Pierre in 2007 was the same as Pierre every year: a .300 hitter who steals a lot of bases, doesn’t walk much, hits with no power whatsoever, and is a liability in the outfield. If the fans expect anything different because of the number of zeroes on Pierre’s salary, then they’re nuts, and so is Ned. The Dodgers don’t need that. What the Dodgers desperately lack is power: in 2007, they hit the second-fewest home runs in the league despite their ballpark, which is a good HR park. Andruw Jones could help, but now we have too many outfielders, and Pierre has a no-trade clause (which he seems to be open to waiving if he thinks it’s best for him). So basically, we are stuck. The fact that he’s “a gamer” isn’t going to solve anything

And don’t get me started on Nomar. I remember when he was absolutely brilliant. Then he got hurt and his production fell off a cliff, and there was that whole debacle with the Alex Rodriguez trade and hurting Nomar’s feelings, and Boston ended up shipping Nomar to Chicago. He came to Los Angeles in 2006 and had a great year, good enough to earn him NL Comeback Player of the Year. Los Angeles gave him two more years and a bunch more money, and he responded by hitting seven home runs in 2007. His OPS+ was 78, his EqA was .241 — whatever numbers you choose as your measuring stick, his 2007 fell just a leeeetle short of expectations, methinks. He might improve, but if he does, I doubt he’ll be 2006 Nomar in 2008.

The alternatives are the kids: Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. Either Kemp or Ethier will likely land a starting job in the outfield, but neither are guaranteed that spot, given Torre’s love for veterans. Kemp had a great 2007 with limited playing time, and Ethier wasn’t “great,” but his 2006 was a very good rookie campaign and he’s certainly a better left-field option than Juan Pierre and his noodle bat. (Remember, folks: that 88 OPS+ will be your new left fielder if the kids don’t step up. That is not left-field production.) LaRoche had very limited playing time in 2007 and didn’t do much with it, but you’re free to look at his minor league stats yourself and see that he has a lot of promise. As far as I know, anyone and his mother could hit in the PCL, but Dodger Stadium isn’t exactly an unkind hitting environment, either.

Most of us would probably prefer the Loney-Kent-Furcal-LaRoche infield and the Ethier-Jones-Kemp outfield over any lineup involving Pierre and Nomar. We’re not managing the team, obviously, but I for one wish Torre would do the same, at least keeping in mind that he has Pierre and Nomar waiting in reserve if he needs them.

One thing is for sure: Russell Martin. Thank your deity of choice for Russell Martin. I won’t get into my usual gripe about the way Little handled Martin’s playing time in 2007 despite having a capable backup in Mike Lieberthal and my fear that Martin will be a DH before he’s 28 if he’s not careful. Suffice it to say that I expect Torre, an ex-catcher, to deal with Martin properly. He kept Jorge Posada from falling apart in New York, and Posada’s going to be 37 this year, so that’s promising. Torre has no other choice. He has to start the 25-year-old catcher whether he likes it or not, because that 25-year-old catcher was an All-Star last year and one of the organization’s prized players. Take that, Joe!

We’ll have to wait and see how things shake out. I could be jumping the gun, and so could Joe Torre. Spring training isn’t even in full swing yet, and all the fans are up in arms about experience over potential. The experience could work out, and if it doesn’t, Torre’s smart enough to see that. Hopefully, he’s also smart enough to act on what he sees.

ETA: Thank you, Joe. That’s a step in the right direction — take care of Russell.

Torre favors experience [Dodgers.com]
Juan Pierre tries to figure out his future [Los Angeles Times]
Andy LaRoche Statistics (Minor Leagues) [Baseball Reference]
Torre to rest catcher Martin [Dodgers.com]

I need some time to gather my thoughts (and numbers) for predictions etc, so, in lieu of actual content, I’m going to post an essay, of sorts, that I wrote a couple weeks ago.  In my section of the “About Us” page, my dislikes include ”people using CBP as an excuse for the Phillies offensive prowess”.  This has always been one of those things that irk me, but the essay came about from a discussion I had with MLB Radio host Pete McCarthy over the Phillies offense.  And Pete maintained that the Phillies offense was a product of their home ballpark.   I, having watched nearly every game of the Phils, and also a great deal of other NL East action, knew the Phillies offense was the cream of the crop and not just because CBP is the size of a matchbox.   And set out to prove it, with the help of my Handy-Dandy Notebook AKA baseball-reference.com.

So, editted slightly for this blog, here’s The True Adventures of the Philadelphia Offense.

——————————- 

 While CBP is a factor at times (it’d be a lie if I said it didn’t affect any games or stats), I think the Phillies would still be the premier offense in the National League. Because CBP is given the wrong title of “hitter’s park” when it should be “SLUGGER’S park”. I mean, if I want J-Roll to get his tons of triples, I’d rather see him play someplace like Dolphin Stadium or PetCo where the ball has room to pinball around. You have to hit the ball at exactly the right spot, the little indent in left-center. Or have a fielder misjudge the ball and have it get by/drop behind them. Places like Dolphin Stadium for example, if you just hit it to the wall and have it bang off, guys like Victorino and J-Roll would easily have a triple, as deep as those stadiums are. Not true for CBP! It’s halfway back to the infield!
Also, another thing that people forget it is, and I don’t know why, is that every game we play another team who is EQUALLY benefitted by the dimensions of CBP! So there is no real “advantage” given to the Phillies themselves. That’s why Jose Reyes can hit 3 HRs or Kaz Matsui can hit a grand slam and destroy the postseason hopes of an entire city. So yes, the offensive numbers in and of themselves are helped but that doesn’t mean anything for the games! Now, I know that you weren’t saying that but I’ve heard it before: “Oh the Phillies wouldn’t be as good if they didn’t play at CBP!” They still have to compete with guys on the opposing teams putting up better numbers than they typically would. The other team doesn’t take their at-bats at a different stadium in the top of the inning.

Let’s get to the meat of the argument. First some simple stats.

The Phillies were 2nd in the league in home offense: 450 runs, opposed to the Rockies’ 478.

They were also TOP in the league in away game offense!

Now, I’m sure one would think, oh, I’m sure that’s because they had way more HRs at home than they did on the road. And yes, 19 more at home than on the road! But the actual run difference? 8 more at home! Not really a big deal. The Phils can find other ways to get the job done, not just rely on the CBP being tiny, and trying to knock one out of the park. I’ll get to that later.

So, that home/away differential. Let’s check out other teams that play in lil’ ballparks.

Cincinnati? 117 HRs and 416 runs at home. As opposed to 87 and 367 on the road. If anyone has an advantage of playing in a small park, I’d say it’d be the Reds and not the Phils. But no one noticed/notices that because the Reds were, let’s face it, kind of a rollercoaster

Colorado Rockies? 103 HRs and 478 runs at home. And they are even more helped by playing at Coors. Because on the road, they only managed 68 HRs and 362 runs!

I checked the Astros and they have almost exact equal numbers home and away. Equally crappy.

Another small example of the Phillies offense being awesome no matter where: They averaged 7 runs a game in their 4 game series in PetCo. And one of those games they were shut out by Chris Young.

Small example part deux: Cincinnati. How did the Phillies fair in another small ballpark? A smaller capsule with which to work with. 17 runs against the Reds in 3 games (2 wins). And those 17 runs? Not on homeruns (only 3, and 2 of which were solo shots), but on 10 doubles, 27 hits in all. And yes, a little help from sloppy Reds fielding.

Yet another: 21-14 on the road against their NL East opponents. All of whom play in “Pitcher-friendly” or neutral parks. Granted the Nats won’t be in RFK this year but this is still a testament. Because their home-away run differential, the biggest difference in the Phillies’ (CBP’s) favor is against the Nats:

Atlanta: 41 (CBP) vs. 52 (Turner)
Florida: 56 (CBP) vs. 53 (Dolphin)
New York: 43 (CBP) vs. 45 (Shea)
Washingon: 51 (CBP) vs. 37 (RFK)

So that’s a total of 189 runs at CBP, and 187 runs on the road!

Despite that their Home Run differential is strongly in favor of CBP
v. Atlanta: 13 (CBP) & 10 (Turner)
V. Florida: 14 (CBP) & 9 (Dolphin)
V. New York: 17 (CBP) & 10 (Shea)
v. Washington: 12 (CBP) & 10 (RFK)

Giving them 56 at CBP and 39 home runs on the road against their NL East opponents! Yet they have an almost equal amount of runs, and are in much larger ballparks doing this damage.

You could even go deeper and look at the Phillies themselves.
Ryan’s numbers:
Home: 23 HR 56 RBI and a .260 Batting Average
Away: 24 HR 80 RBI and a .276 Batting Average

If I didn’t designate which was home and which was away, you’d probably guess his away numbers were his CBP numbers.

J-Roll:
18HR-13 doubles-47 RBI-69R-108H
12HR-25-doubles-47-RBI-70R-104H
So yes, Jimmy’s HR totals are slightly in favor of CBP but..show me where that actually affects anything other than Jimmy’s personal stats. Let’s say each of those HRs are 2-run HRs, and let’s turn 3 of them into RBI doubles and 3 into outs. He still has 38 RBIs, and is on second for guys like Chase or Ryan or Arow (or Pat provided what month it is) to drive him in.

Pat da Glove:
16 HR- 60 RBI
14 HR- 37 RBI

Yeah and he also hit .295 at home as opposed to .220 on the road. 18 doubles at home and 8 on the road.

I don’t think I need to keep going.

Even guys like Victorino and Dobbs , non power hitters, didn’t have any difference in their main offensive numbers going from home and away. Oh, except Shane’s average. Which, again, I don’t see how CBP would affect his average.

But I think this is one of the biggest things that show the Phillies aren’t just benefactors of their ballpark: getting caught stealing 19 times out of 157. Their 138 steals were second in the NL and that 88% was an all-time Major League record.
They can manufacture runs, not just rely on Ryan or whoever to knock in everyone. They put themselves in line to score. A prime example is Jayson Werth’s two steals on two pitches against Billy Wagner on the August 30th game! That win would’ve gone to the Mets if J-Dub hadn’t gotten his butt from first to home on three pitches.

So in conclusion? The Phillies haven’t met a ballpark they didn’t like.  And obviously this isn’t a reflection on how well their pitching does, or their overall success as a team, just their offense.

—————–

Okay, hopefully that was something resembling riveting for all of you.  I know I enjoyed researching it. 

I posted this in my LiveJournal too.  I will probably post a lot of things that I post in my LiveJournal in here, actually.  Although, here I may go more into depth than the passing mentions that are in my LJ posts.  But to those who read my LJ, expect a lot of duplicate-type posts.

Soon I will post about my predictions for the NL East.  Which will be more Braves v. Mets-heavy than really discussing the Phillies.  Because I think there’s a lot of…how do I put this nicely?  COMPLETE BULLSHIT analzying going on where the Braves and Mets ‘08 squads are concerned.  It’s an overused phrase but it applies here:  You think you know but you have no idea.  And I’ll do my best to debunk some of the “predictions” that have been bandied about on account of the Santana-colored glasses that everyone’s wearing.

And I suppose I should address the whole TEAM TO BEAT! tripe.  I’ll do that too with my predictions.  Trust me, it’ll be nothing special.    At least not as special as it’s being made out to be. 

–Leanne

It’s funny that you’re here, since we haven’t started blogging yet.

Expect us to start posting sometime during Spring Training, I suppose.