I need some time to gather my thoughts (and numbers) for predictions etc, so, in lieu of actual content, I’m going to post an essay, of sorts, that I wrote a couple weeks ago. In my section of the “About Us” page, my dislikes include ”people using CBP as an excuse for the Phillies offensive prowess”. This has always been one of those things that irk me, but the essay came about from a discussion I had with MLB Radio host Pete McCarthy over the Phillies offense. And Pete maintained that the Phillies offense was a product of their home ballpark. I, having watched nearly every game of the Phils, and also a great deal of other NL East action, knew the Phillies offense was the cream of the crop and not just because CBP is the size of a matchbox. And set out to prove it, with the help of my Handy-Dandy Notebook AKA baseball-reference.com.
So, editted slightly for this blog, here’s The True Adventures of the Philadelphia Offense.
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While CBP is a factor at times (it’d be a lie if I said it didn’t affect any games or stats), I think the Phillies would still be the premier offense in the National League. Because CBP is given the wrong title of “hitter’s park” when it should be “SLUGGER’S park”. I mean, if I want J-Roll to get his tons of triples, I’d rather see him play someplace like Dolphin Stadium or PetCo where the ball has room to pinball around. You have to hit the ball at exactly the right spot, the little indent in left-center. Or have a fielder misjudge the ball and have it get by/drop behind them. Places like Dolphin Stadium for example, if you just hit it to the wall and have it bang off, guys like Victorino and J-Roll would easily have a triple, as deep as those stadiums are. Not true for CBP! It’s halfway back to the infield!
Also, another thing that people forget it is, and I don’t know why, is that every game we play another team who is EQUALLY benefitted by the dimensions of CBP! So there is no real “advantage” given to the Phillies themselves. That’s why Jose Reyes can hit 3 HRs or Kaz Matsui can hit a grand slam and destroy the postseason hopes of an entire city. So yes, the offensive numbers in and of themselves are helped but that doesn’t mean anything for the games! Now, I know that you weren’t saying that but I’ve heard it before: “Oh the Phillies wouldn’t be as good if they didn’t play at CBP!” They still have to compete with guys on the opposing teams putting up better numbers than they typically would. The other team doesn’t take their at-bats at a different stadium in the top of the inning.
Let’s get to the meat of the argument. First some simple stats.
The Phillies were 2nd in the league in home offense: 450 runs, opposed to the Rockies’ 478.
They were also TOP in the league in away game offense!
Now, I’m sure one would think, oh, I’m sure that’s because they had way more HRs at home than they did on the road. And yes, 19 more at home than on the road! But the actual run difference? 8 more at home! Not really a big deal. The Phils can find other ways to get the job done, not just rely on the CBP being tiny, and trying to knock one out of the park. I’ll get to that later.
So, that home/away differential. Let’s check out other teams that play in lil’ ballparks.
Cincinnati? 117 HRs and 416 runs at home. As opposed to 87 and 367 on the road. If anyone has an advantage of playing in a small park, I’d say it’d be the Reds and not the Phils. But no one noticed/notices that because the Reds were, let’s face it, kind of a rollercoaster
Colorado Rockies? 103 HRs and 478 runs at home. And they are even more helped by playing at Coors. Because on the road, they only managed 68 HRs and 362 runs!
I checked the Astros and they have almost exact equal numbers home and away. Equally crappy.
Another small example of the Phillies offense being awesome no matter where: They averaged 7 runs a game in their 4 game series in PetCo. And one of those games they were shut out by Chris Young.
Small example part deux: Cincinnati. How did the Phillies fair in another small ballpark? A smaller capsule with which to work with. 17 runs against the Reds in 3 games (2 wins). And those 17 runs? Not on homeruns (only 3, and 2 of which were solo shots), but on 10 doubles, 27 hits in all. And yes, a little help from sloppy Reds fielding.
Yet another: 21-14 on the road against their NL East opponents. All of whom play in “Pitcher-friendly” or neutral parks. Granted the Nats won’t be in RFK this year but this is still a testament. Because their home-away run differential, the biggest difference in the Phillies’ (CBP’s) favor is against the Nats:
Atlanta: 41 (CBP) vs. 52 (Turner)
Florida: 56 (CBP) vs. 53 (Dolphin)
New York: 43 (CBP) vs. 45 (Shea)
Washingon: 51 (CBP) vs. 37 (RFK)
So that’s a total of 189 runs at CBP, and 187 runs on the road!
Despite that their Home Run differential is strongly in favor of CBP
v. Atlanta: 13 (CBP) & 10 (Turner)
V. Florida: 14 (CBP) & 9 (Dolphin)
V. New York: 17 (CBP) & 10 (Shea)
v. Washington: 12 (CBP) & 10 (RFK)
Giving them 56 at CBP and 39 home runs on the road against their NL East opponents! Yet they have an almost equal amount of runs, and are in much larger ballparks doing this damage.
You could even go deeper and look at the Phillies themselves.
Ryan’s numbers:
Home: 23 HR 56 RBI and a .260 Batting Average
Away: 24 HR 80 RBI and a .276 Batting Average
If I didn’t designate which was home and which was away, you’d probably guess his away numbers were his CBP numbers.
J-Roll:
18HR-13 doubles-47 RBI-69R-108H
12HR-25-doubles-47-RBI-70R-104H
So yes, Jimmy’s HR totals are slightly in favor of CBP but..show me where that actually affects anything other than Jimmy’s personal stats. Let’s say each of those HRs are 2-run HRs, and let’s turn 3 of them into RBI doubles and 3 into outs. He still has 38 RBIs, and is on second for guys like Chase or Ryan or Arow (or Pat provided what month it is) to drive him in.
Pat da Glove:
16 HR- 60 RBI
14 HR- 37 RBI
Yeah and he also hit .295 at home as opposed to .220 on the road. 18 doubles at home and 8 on the road.
I don’t think I need to keep going.
Even guys like Victorino and Dobbs , non power hitters, didn’t have any difference in their main offensive numbers going from home and away. Oh, except Shane’s average. Which, again, I don’t see how CBP would affect his average.
But I think this is one of the biggest things that show the Phillies aren’t just benefactors of their ballpark: getting caught stealing 19 times out of 157. Their 138 steals were second in the NL and that 88% was an all-time Major League record.
They can manufacture runs, not just rely on Ryan or whoever to knock in everyone. They put themselves in line to score. A prime example is Jayson Werth’s two steals on two pitches against Billy Wagner on the August 30th game! That win would’ve gone to the Mets if J-Dub hadn’t gotten his butt from first to home on three pitches.
So in conclusion? The Phillies haven’t met a ballpark they didn’t like. And obviously this isn’t a reflection on how well their pitching does, or their overall success as a team, just their offense.
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Okay, hopefully that was something resembling riveting for all of you. I know I enjoyed researching it.
I posted this in my LiveJournal too. I will probably post a lot of things that I post in my LiveJournal in here, actually. Although, here I may go more into depth than the passing mentions that are in my LJ posts. But to those who read my LJ, expect a lot of duplicate-type posts.
Soon I will post about my predictions for the NL East. Which will be more Braves v. Mets-heavy than really discussing the Phillies. Because I think there’s a lot of…how do I put this nicely? COMPLETE BULLSHIT analzying going on where the Braves and Mets ‘08 squads are concerned. It’s an overused phrase but it applies here: You think you know but you have no idea. And I’ll do my best to debunk some of the “predictions” that have been bandied about on account of the Santana-colored glasses that everyone’s wearing.
And I suppose I should address the whole TEAM TO BEAT! tripe. I’ll do that too with my predictions. Trust me, it’ll be nothing special. At least not as special as it’s being made out to be.
–Leanne
